CYCLIC DYNAMICS OF INFLATION: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Alexander Protasov, Tatyana Kotcofana, Polina Stazhkova

Abstract


The paper is dedicated to the study of nonlinear dynamics of inflation. We hypothesize that in the second half of the twentieth century, inflation cycles replaced the pre-existing inflation-deflation cycles. This hypothesis is based on the study of data about price levels in various countries of the world for the period of 1950 to 2016. The paper shows some results of a spectral analysis that was applied to the dynamic series of prices. The results of the spectral analysis confirmed the hypothesis about the existence of inflation cycles.

Keywords


inflation, cycles, spectral analysis, spectral density function

Full Text:

PDF

References


Banerji, A. (2005). The Relationship between Labor Costs and Inflation: A Cyclical Viewpoint. Economic Cycle Research Institute. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Galí, J. (2008). Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework. Princeton, NJ. Princeton University Press.

Glazyev, S. Yu. (1991). Nauchno-tekhnicheskiy progress i sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoye razvitiye [Scientific and technological progress and socio-economic development]. Novosibirsk: Nauka, 187–193.

Gordon, D. M. (1981). Capital-Labor Conflict and the Productivity Slowdown // the American Economic Review. Vol. 71 (2), 30 – 35.

Granger, C.W. J. and Hatanaka, M. (2015). Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series. (PSME-1). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2015.

Harvey, A. C. (1975). Spectral Analysis in Economics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D (The Statistician). Vol. 24, No. 1, 1-36.

Kirillovskaya, A.A. et al (2016) The Newest Economic Policy, Government Regulation of the Economy and Economic Security. Globalization and its Socio-Economic Consequences. 16th International Scientific Conference Proceedings. ZU - University of Zilina, 5th -6th October 2016, Rajecke Teplice, Slovak Republic. Pp. 870-875.

Kotcofana, T. (2007). The Components of Inflation: the Reproductive Approach. Vestnik of Saint-Peterburg University. Ser.5: Economics, vol. 4, pp. 41-50. RSCI: 16531561

Malkina, M. Yu. (2006). Inflyatsiya i upravleniye inflyatsionnymi protsessami v rossiyskoy i zarubezhnoy ekonomike [Inflation and management of inflation processes in the Russian and foreign economies]. Nizhny Novgorod: Nizhny Novgorod State University, 181 – 182.

Niemira, M. P. and Klein, P. A. (1994). Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 435 - 436.

Palley, T.I. (1996). Post Keynesian Economics: Debt, Distribution and the Macroeconomy. T.I. Palley. London: Macmillan. Ch. 11.

Pashkus, V.Y. et al (2016) Evaluation of City Brand in the Global Economy: Techniques and Perspectives. Globalization and its Socio-Economic Consequences. 16th International Scientific Conference Proceedings. ZU - University of Zilina, 5th -6th October 2016, Rajecke Teplice, Slovak Republic. 2016. Pp. 1635-1641.

Protasov, A. Yu. (2013). Tsiklicheskiye zakonomernosti inflyatsionnykh protsessov: mirovoy opyt i otechestvennaya praktika [Cyclical patterns of inflation: international experience and domestic practice] St. Petersburg. Publishing house of the St. Petersburg University.

Protasov, A. Yu. (2015). Inflyatsiya i raspredelitel'nyye konflikty v rossiyskoy ekonomike [Inflation and distribution conflicts in Russian economy] Problems of Modern Economics. № 3 (55), 115 – 119.

Rosenberg, S. and Weisskopf, T. E. (1981). A Conflict Theory Approach to Inflation in the Postwar U.S. Economy // the American Economic Review. Vol. 71 (2), 42 – 47.

Simran, S. (2015). Inflation, Inflation Volatility and Economic Growth: The Case of India. IUP Journal of Applied Economics. Vol. 14 (3).

Sitnikova, A. Yu. (2009). Metod spektral‘nogo analiza dlya vyyavleniya tsiklov ekonomicheskoy kon‘yunktury [Method of spectral analysis for identifying cycles of the economic conjuncture]. Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics. № 9 (59), 107–112;

Skene, G. L. (1992). Cycles of Inflation and Deflation: Money, Debt, and the 1990s. Westport. Praeger Publishers.

Zoidov, K. Kh. (2001). Inflyatsionnyye tsikly i krizisy v perekhodnoy ekonomike Rossii. Opyt rynochnykh preobrazovaniy i sovershenstvovaniye sistemy gosudarstvennogo regulirovaniya [Inflation cycles and crises in the transitional economy of Russia. Experience of market transformations and improvement of the system of state regulation] Institute of Economics, RAS, 195 – 205.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12955/cbup.v5.956

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Print ISSN 1805-997X, Online ISSN 1805-9961

(c) 2017 Central Bohemia University