Peaks Over Threshold Vs. Lognormal Estimates Of The Czech Household Incomes

  • Adam Cabla University of Economics in Prague
Keywords: Peaks over Threshold, Parameter Estimates, Quantile Estimates, Income Distribution, Czech Households

Abstract

Income distributions are usually long-tailed and the right tail is often important part of income inequality metrics, but it is also problematic part of income distribution to be modeled. The POT method is theoretically well established method for modeling tails of unknown underlying distribution and thus candidate to become complement of the standard estimates. The article deals with the problem of parameter estimates using deHaan and CME methods and comparing the resulting quantile estimates with the one-distributional fitting. All of these estimates are done for the net money incomes of the Czech households. The results shows, that due to the data problems deHaan method usually gives.more robust estimates than CME method. The log-normal distribution usually fits the data well up to the quantile x0,995 but for the rest of the distribution, the GPD is better fitting distribution. The peaks over threshold method is then useful only for the genuine extremes and even there its estimates depends on the quality of data.

References

Bílková, D. (2009). Pareto Distribution and Wage Models. Aplimat [CD-ROM], roč. II, č. III, 37–46. ISSN 1337-6365.

Čabla, A. (2011) Modelování příjmových rozdělení pomocí čtyřparametrického logaritmicko-normálního rozdělení. In: Sborník prací účastníků vědeckého semináře doktorandského studia Fakulty informatiky a statistiky VŠE v Praze [CD]. Praha: Oeconomica, 136–140. ISBN 978-80-245-1761-2.

Gross, J.L., Heckert, N.A, Lechner, J.A. & Simiu, E. (1995). Extreme Wind Estimates by the Conditional Mean Exceedance Procedure. Journal of Structural Engineering.

Malá, I. (2010). Generalized Linear Model and Finite Mixture Distributions. Demänovská Dolina 25.08.2010 – 28.08.2010. In: AMSE 2010 [CD]. Banská Bystrica : Občianske združenie Financ, 225–234. ISBN 978-80-89438-02-0.

Perline, R. (2005). Strong, weak and false inverse power laws. Statistical Science, 20(1), 68-88.

Simiu, E., & Heckert, N.A. (1996). Extreme Wind Distribution Tails: A "Peaks Over Threshold Approach". Journal of Structural Engineering.

Taleb, N.N., (2010). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House Trade Paperbacks. New York.

Tanaka, S., & Takara, K. (2002) A study on threshold selection in POT analysis of extreme floods. The Extremes of the Extremes: Extraordinary Floods, 271, 299 – 304.

Vojtěch, J. (2011). Využití teorie extrémních hodnot při řízení operačních rizik (Dissertation). Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze.

Published
2012-03-10
Section
Articles