Dependency Between Gross Domestic Product And Unemployment In The Czech Republic

  • Martina Miskolczi University of Economics in Prague
  • Jitka Langhamrova University of Economics in Prague
  • Tomas Fiala University of Economics in Prague
Keywords: GDP, Unemployment, Dependency, Czech Republic

Abstract

Unemployment is one of very important and closely monitored macroeconomic indicators. Unemployment rate gives indication what proportion of workforce is currently without job. In many cases prediction of unemployment would help to plan fiscal policy, programs of active employment policy and other tools of social politics. Importance of reliable prediction was proved during crisis period. Such that, modelling of labour market – employment and unemployment – may have benefits for many institutions.In the paper, there were analyzed various macroeconomic indicators in the correlation analysis, including delayed variables. Such the correlation analysis may help to build macroeconomic model using main macroeconomic variables, for example GDP, household consumption, government consumption, investments, inflation, wages, rate of employment and participation rate. It is widely accepted that GDP is one of the strongest predictor for forecasting of unemployment trend but with some delay because labour market reacts later according to legislative framework in the country. Relation between GDP and unemployment rate for the case of the Czech Republic is introduced considering time delay. Importance of GDP and GDP growth rate was not approved statistically based on real data analysis but the direction of relation was confirmed. Moreover, the regression model is proposed and estimated with the variable number of unemployed individuals as dependent variable. Forecasts and applications with two scenarios based on the regression model capture real trend of reported number of unemployed people, i.e. decreasing number of unemployed in the year 2011.

References

Arltová, Markéta, Langhamrová, Jitka. 2010. Reproduction of Human Capital. Prague: Acta oeconomica Pragensia, Vol. 18, No. 2, p. 96–98.

Buchtová, Božena et al. 2002. Nezaměstnanost – psychologický, ekonomický a sociální problém. Prague: Grada Publishing. ISBN 80-247-9006-8.

Czech Statistical Office – Inflation rate; Comprehensive Data – Time series – Gross domestic produkt, Wales; Labour Market and Earnings – Employment, Unemployment. Czech Statistical Office web pages. [cit. 2010-11-20]. Cited from http://www.czso.cz

Fiala, Tomáš, Langhamrová, Jitka. 2010. Ekonomická aktivita mužů a žen od konce roku 2000 a vliv zvyšování důchodového věku (Economic activity of males and females since the end of 2000 and impact of increasing retirement age). Demografie [CD-ROM] 52/1, p. 110–122.

Froyen, Richard T. 1986. Macroeconomics. Theories and Policies. 2nd ed. New York: Macmillan Publishing Company. ISBN 0-02-339410-2.

Holman, Robert. 2001. Ekonomie. 2nd ed. Prague: C.H.Beck. ISBN 80-7179-255-1.

Jírová, Hana. 2002. Trh práce a politika nezaměstnanosti. Prague: VŠE Prague. ISBN 80-7079-635-9.

Kotýnková, Magdalena. 2006. Trh práce na přelomu tisíciletí. Prague: Oeconomica. ISBN 80-245-1149-5.

Langhamrová, Jitka, Fiala, Tomáš. 2007. The Projection Of Health Care Expenditure. In: MSED na VŠE. Praha: Typograf, p. 1–6. ISBN 978-80-254-0275-0.

Langhamrová, Jitka, Langhamrová, Jana. 2010. Conference Reproduction of Human Capital - RELIK 2009. Demografie 52/1, p. 67–68.

Law No. 435/2004 Sb., about employment

Labour Code No. 262/2006 Sb.

Mach, Miloš. 1998. Makroekonomie II pro magisterské (inženýrské) studium 1. a 2.část. Prague: Melandrium. ISBN: 80-86175-18-9.

Miskolczi, Martina. 2010 a. Analysis of Unemployment of Males and Females. PEFnet 2010. Brno: Vydavatelství MU Brno.

Miskolczi, Martina. 2010 b. Trends in Unemployment in the Czech Republic and Regions. In: Doucek, P., Chroust, G., Oškrdal, V. (eds.) IDIMT-2010, vol. 32, pp. 219–228. Linz: Trauner Verlag.

Sirovátka, Tomáš. 1995. Politika pracovního trhu. 1st ed. Brno: Vydavatelství MU Brno. ISBN 80-210-1251-X.

Published
2010-03-10
Section
Articles